The First-Round Readiness Score, or FRED, measures passing efficiency, touchdown and interception rates, QBR, experience and a quarterback's best three- and five-game stretches. Julian Sayin leads the early 2027 class with a 55.3 rating before his final college season.

By the numbers
Historical first-round threshold50
Julian Sayin FRED score55.3
Jayden Maiava43.4
Drew Mestemaker40.4
Darian Mensah39.4
Brendan Sorsby35.4

The historical sample included 22 quarterbacks who reached 50 before their final seasons. All 22 became first-round picks. Three others, Jayden Daniels at 49.5, Zach Wilson at 48.9 and Josh Rosen at 48.5, also went in the first round despite falling just short of the threshold.

Dante Moore and Arch Manning are the top two quarterbacks on the summer scouting board, both with top-five overall grades. Sayin, Sorsby and the other projected first-round quarterbacks remain subject to their final college seasons. The model will be measured against their additional performance.