Market prices are captured with timestamp and provider context.
METHODOLOGY
How Kelley Bets finds edge.
Kelley starts with market price, reference odds, fair value, and qualification gates.
The scanner surfaces candidates. Kelley releases signals.
Market price comes before opinion.
Kelley compares the same event, market, outcome, and line across books before estimating fair value. A reference price anchors the comparison, and vig is removed before probability is used.
NormalizeSame event. Same market. Same line.No mismatched comparison.
ReferenceReference odds anchor the fair-price estimate.Market before opinion.
DevigVig is removed before probability is used.Cleaner fair value.
Fair value ledgerCandidate math
reference probabilitydevigged reference probability
fair odds1 / reference probability
EVreference probability × available odds - 1
edgeavailable odds / fair odds - 1
The formula creates a candidate. Review decides whether it becomes a signal.
A candidate is not a signal.
The scanner can surface candidates. Kelley releases only signals that clear value, freshness, market-match, sizing, and warning gates.
Candidate reviewRelease gate
GateRequirementFailure state
ValueEV clears the release threshold without becoming an outlier.Pass.
FreshnessPrice update remains inside the active window.Stale.
MarketEvent, market, outcome, and line match cleanly.Mismatch.
SizingUnits fit the fractional Kelly and cap standard.Review.
ReviewWarnings and release notes are checked before a candidate is presented.Hold.
Candidates become signals only after review.
A calculated candidate becomes a Kelley signal only after review. A released signal carries the member-facing price, note, and freshness state.
Events, markets, outcomes, and lines are matched before comparison.
Fair price, EV, edge, and unit sizing are calculated.
Warnings, stale prices, outliers, and release notes are checked.
Members see the current signal, available price, units, and note.
A user may separately save an entry in the optional browser-local Record tracker.
Personal tracking and public research are separate surfaces.
Record is an optional browser-local personal tracker for entries a user chooses to save. Insights contains dated public operational and method notes; it is not fed by a server-side Record workflow.
RecordSaved entries and settlement stay in the user's browser unless exported.Personal tracking.
ScopeRecord does not generate closing-line analysis or sitewide performance reporting.Tracker boundary.
InsightsDated notes document specific operational evidence, methods, and limits.Public research.
SeparationPersonal Record data is not automatically sent to Insights or another public surface.No automatic transfer.
Method before membership
Inspect the standard before access.
Methodology and dated Insights notes are public. Record is a private browser-local tracker for personal use.