The Kansas City Chiefs are among five NFL teams identified as most likely to improve in 2026 after going from 10-0 in one-score games in 2024 to 1-9 in 2025.

By the numbers
Chiefs one-score record in 202410-0
Chiefs one-score record in 20251-9
Mahomes one-score record through 202443-17
2025 point differential before Mahomes’ injury+60

Kansas City’s 18-game change in one-score victories from 2024 to 2025 was the largest in league history. The Chiefs went 1-7 in those games with Patrick Mahomes before he tore his left ACL, then relied on Gardner Minshew II and Chris Oladokun at quarterback.

The broader performance was stronger than the record indicated. Kansas City ranked eighth in DVOA through its Week 15 game against the Chargers, when Mahomes was injured. Excluding the games after that injury, the Chiefs outscored opponents by 60 points, compared with 59 points during the 2024 regular season.

The 2026 season will show whether Kansas City’s close-game results move back toward a more typical level.