Bankroll
Kelly Criterion in practice: sizing bets when edges are uncertain
Full Kelly is theoretically optimal but practically dangerous when edge estimates carry noise. Here is how fractional Kelly sizing maps to realistic bankroll variance.
Analysis & methodology.
Process notes, system reviews, and analytical frameworks.
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Line shopping methodology: extracting value before close
The difference between opening and closing line captures most of the extractable edge. This piece covers the workflow for monitoring line movement across Pinnacle, Bookmaker, and Betfair.
NFL
NFL ATS trends that survive out-of-sample testing
Most NFL ATS systems are overfit. This review applies walk-forward validation to a set of commonly cited trends and identifies the two that hold up against recent data.
Theory
Closing line value as a proxy for process quality
CLV is the clearest signal that your selection process is working. This framework explains how to calculate it properly, what threshold constitutes meaningful edge, and how to track it across samples.
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Bankroll
Bankroll drawdown: setting thresholds before variance hits
Drawdown limits should be set before a losing run, not during one. This note covers the math for stop-loss thresholds at various edge and variance assumptions.
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NBA
NBA back-to-back scheduling: what the market still misprices
The market has largely priced in fatigue on B2B games for road teams. The residual inefficiency is narrower than commonly believed — this review isolates where it still exists.
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System
Identifying sharp money: steam moves, reverse line movement, and noise
Steam moves are frequently misidentified. This piece breaks down the three signals most often cited as sharp action and explains which are reliable indicators versus coincidental noise.
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Theory
Expected value under juice: how vig erodes edge faster than most accounts show
Standard EV calculations ignore the compounding effect of vig at scale. This model quantifies how much raw edge is required to produce net positive returns across different bet volumes.
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NFL
NFL totals in cold weather: separating signal from narrative
Cold weather as a betting angle is widely cited and mostly overrated. A clean sample of 1,200 outdoor games from 2019–2025 shows where temperature actually moves the needle.
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