Bankroll
Kelly Criterion in practice: sizing bets when edges are uncertain
Full Kelly is theoretically optimal but practically dangerous when edge estimates carry noise. Here is how fractional Kelly sizing maps to realistic bankroll variance.
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Verified record. No picks without position. Membership by application.
+18.4%ROI
94-41-6Record
+47.3uUnits Won
57.3%Win Rate
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TRACK RECORD
The complete record.
18 picks tracked since December 2025.
ROI
+18.4%
since Jan 2024
Record
94-41-6
win-loss-push
Units Won
+47.3u
net units
Win Rate
57.3%
excluding pushes
Avg Odds
-108
American
Avg EV
+4.8%
per pick
Total Picks
141
14 months
Current Streak
W4
last 4 graded
EQUITY CURVE+18.4% ROI
Feb '24Jul '24Nov '24Apr '25Aug '25Jan '26
18 picks
| Date ↓ | Event | Bet | Odds ↕ | EV ↕ | Units ↕ | P&L ↕ | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14 | Vegas Golden Knights vs. Edmonton OilersHockey · NHL | Over 5.5 Goals | -118 | +4.6% | 2.0 u | — | PENDING |
| Mar 12 | New England Patriots vs. New York JetsFootball · NFL | Jets ML | -130 | +3.8% | 3.0 u | — | PENDING |
| Mar 7 | Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami HeatBasketball · NBA | Bucks -6.5 | -110 | +4.3% | 1.5 u | +1.4 u | WIN |
| Mar 5 | Real Madrid vs. BarcelonaSoccer · La Liga | Real Madrid ML | +105 | +5.5% | 2.0 u | -2.0 u | LOSS |
| Mar 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco GiantsBaseball · MLB | Under 8.5 Runs | -108 | +3.1% | 2.5 u | +2.3 u | WIN |
| Feb 15 | Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos AlcarazTennis · ATP | Alcaraz ML | +120 | +4.9% | 2.0 u | +2.4 u | WIN |
| Feb 11 | Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas StarsHockey · NHL | Avalanche puck line -1.5 | +175 | +7.2% | 1.0 u | -1.0 u | LOSS |
| Feb 8 | Liverpool vs. ArsenalSoccer · Premier League | Over 2.5 Goals | -115 | +3.4% | 2.0 u | +1.7 u | WIN |
| Feb 3 | Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Boston CelticsBasketball · NBA | Thunder ML | +145 | +6.8% | 1.5 u | +2.2 u | WIN |
| Jan 19 | Manchester City vs. LiverpoolSoccer · Premier League | Liverpool +1 | +165 | +6.1% | 1.5 u | +2.5 u | WIN |
| Jan 19 | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo BillsFootball · NFL | Chiefs -3.5 | -110 | +5.1% | 2.0 u | +1.8 u | WIN |
| Jan 11 | Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida PanthersHockey · NHL | Panthers ML | -120 | +3.7% | 2.0 u | -2.0 u | LOSS |
| Jan 4 | Los Angeles Lakers vs. Boston CelticsBasketball · NBA | Celtics -4 | -108 | +4.5% | 2.0 u | +1.9 u | WIN |
| Dec 26 | Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota VikingsFootball · NFL | Packers -2.5 | -110 | +5.3% | 2.0 u | +1.8 u | WIN |
| Dec 19 | Atletico Madrid vs. Real MadridSoccer · La Liga | Under 2.5 Goals | +110 | +4.2% | 1.5 u | +1.6 u | WIN |
| Dec 14 | Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston BruinsHockey · NHL | Over 6 Goals | -112 | +3.9% | 2.0 u | +1.8 u | WIN |
| Dec 10 | Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver NuggetsBasketball · NBA | Timberwolves ML | +140 | +5.6% | 1.5 u | +2.1 u | WIN |
| Dec 6 | Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia EaglesFootball · NFL | Eagles -3 | -115 | +4.8% | 2.0 u | +1.7 u | WIN |
MONTHLY REPORTS
Monthly statements.
Full accounting of every position, by month. View detailed statements →